It's that time of year again in the
AFL. After the 3 games today are over, there is only 4 rounds to go. The
Kangaroos have their bye next week so will only have today (vs the
Hawks in Tasmania, 4th on the ladder) and the final 3 rounds against
Fremantle (9th),
St Kilda (6th) and
Richmond (13th). The Roos should account for the
Dockers in Melbourne and
Richmond in the last round. I've calculated that the Roos are a very good chance of making the finals if they win all 4 and a possible chance if they beat either the
Hawks or
Saints and other results go their way.
This is where the other team results come into it. Usually I wouldn't give a toss about an
Essendon Vs
Sydney game but at the business end of the season and both teams fighting for one of the last 2-3 finals places the game became an interesting one. I couldn't care who kicked the goals, picked up Brownlow votes or was subbed off. I was only interested in the final score. Unfortunately Essendon pulled off a 1 point win and could be the points to hold us out.
As it stands the top 5 team are going to play finals.
Collingwood and
Geelong will take the top 2 spots, probably in that order.
Carlton, Hawthorn and
West Coast will fill out spots 3 to 5, again not sure of the order yet. This leaves red hot
St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Fremantle and the
Kangaroos fighting for the last 3 spots to have the honour of playing finals. As it stands, not including the results today, Sunday the 7th of August the Ladder is:
6th - St Kilda 10 wins a draw - 42 points
7th - Sydney 9 wins a draw - 38 points
8th - Essendon 9 wins a draw - 38 points
-------------------------------------------
9th - Fremantle 9 wins - 36 points
10th - Nth Melbourne 8 wins - 32 points
An unlikely win for the Roos today against Hawthorn will see then move into 9th spot with superior percentage to the Dockers and sit a draw(half a game) out of the 8. This is where the Roos have their finals aspirations in their own hands but surely it's not bad sportsmanship to follow the games featuring the aforementioned teams and hope they lose.
St Kilda have hit a purple patch recently winning their last 6 games and 9 or their last 11. So they are probably out of reach for the Roos, so when they are playing one of the other 3 teams I hope they win. As seen this Friday when they beat Fremantle. The Kangaroos game today is the last game for the round that could have an affect on who will make the finals, so I'll be taping the game that is being broadcast at midnight tonight : (
Next week,
Round 21 there are several games that I will keep a keen eye on. I'm bolding the ones I hope win for the hopes of the Roos making the finals for 2011.
St Kilda v
Collingwood - Pies hot favourites ;)
Fremantle v
Carlton - Carlton favourites ;)
Western Bulldogs v Essendon - Close game but going with Essendon. I'd love an upset though!
Richmond v Sydney - Sydney favs but who knows
North Melbourne have the bye. If all results go according to plan the ladder will look like this:
6th St Kilda 10 wins a draw - 42 points
7th Sydney 10 wins a draw - 42 points
8th Essendon 10 wins a draw - 42 points
-----------------------------------------
9th Fremantle 9 wins - 36 points
10th Nth Melbourne 8 wins - 32 points
I'm giving the Roos a loss to the Hawks, St Kilda and Fremantle likely to lose and wins to Sydney and Essendon.
Round 22
West Coast v Essendon - Eagle at home to win
Nth Melb v Fremantle - Roos favs in Melb to win
Sydney v
St Kilda - Saints favs due to better form to win
Ladder
6th St Kilda 11 wins a draw - 46 points
7th Sydney 10 wins a draw - 42 points
8th Essendon 10 wins a draw - 42 points
-------------------------------
9th North Melb 9 wins - 36 points
10th Fremantle 9 wins - 36 points
Round 23
Fremantle v
Collingwood - Pies to win
Geelong v Sydney - Geelong to win
St Kilda v
Nth Melb - Roos to learn from last loss that should have been a win.
Essendon v Port Adelaide - Essendon to win. YCW Stonecats U15s could beat Power!
Ladder
6th St Kilda 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
7th Essendon 11 wins a draw - 46pts
8th Sydney 10 wins a draw - 42pts
--------------------------------------
9th Nth Melb 10 wins - 40pts
10th Fremantle 9 wins - 36 pts
Round 24
I not going to look at Fremantle as they will be out of contention by now.
Sydney v Brisbane - Sydney to win
Carlton v St Kilda - Carlton likely playing for top 4 spot to win
Richmond v
Nth Melb - Surely Nth to win
Essendon have te bye
Ladder
6th St Kilda 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
7th Sydney 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
8th Essendon 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
--------------------------------
9th Nth Melb 11 wins - 44 pts
So if the results go according to plan and the Roos are able to beat either the Hawks or the Saints they'd still miss out by 2 points (the draw). That is why I will be hoping for an upset and a team like the Bulldogs or Richmond to beat 1 of the 3 teams ahead of us on the ladder.
I guess I should focus on the game today but that's how I roll.
Until then hail to an upset! (or two!)
