North Melbourne Kangaroos - The Run Home (The Final 2 Rounds)

When looking at a run home situation you should focus what you/the team can do to get themselves into a position to play finals.

Well the Kangaroos have screwed themselves into a position where they need 'help' from results including three other teams. St Kilda Essendon and Sydney. Too many 'close' finishes mean we rely on a little help from the result fairy.

Currently North Melbourne sit 9th on the ladder but must move up to at least 8th if they want to play more than just 2 more games.

Ladder
6th St Kilda 42 pts
7th Sydney  42 pts
8th Essendon 42 pts
---------------------------------
9th North Melbourne 36 pts

This puts the Kangaroos 1 win and a half a game or a draw behind the next three teams.

St Kilda play the Kangaroos and Carlton. With 1 possible win.
Sydney play Geelong and Brisbane with 1 likely win
Essendon play Port Adelaide and Bye with 1 probable win.
North Melbourne play St Kilda and Richmond with 1 likely win.

So....  If the Kangaroos win only the 1 game (against the Tigers) they need either a Sydney loss to Brisbane (Unlikely)

But... If the Kangaroos win 2/both of their remaining games they will leapfrog Essendon into 8th place if they lose to Port Adelaide and could move even further up the ladder with a Sydney loss to Brisbane (unlikely) and St Kilda loss to Carlton (probable). If all of that happens the Roos would move into 6th spot and a home final.

So does that clear it up? North need to win this Saturday Night against St Kilda and half of the battle has been won. Another performance like they exhibited against the Dockers last Saturday and they'll be a great chance to win.

Until then hail to the runs!

North Melbourne Kangaroos - Round 20 Review v Hawthorn Hawks

Well what can I say another go against a top 4 team and another loss. Don't get me wrong it wasn't a thumping, the Roos were even briefly ahead with 4 minutes to go. But.... they faded and the old guard for the Hawks came through and again showed us that the Roos are still off the mark. Not much in my mind but still can't seem to win the games when they're in the balance. The Kangaroos have won 2 games by okay teams and through responding to the opposition surge that inevitably came. Round 13 vs Essendon and round 17 vs Western Bulldogs showed a glimpse of some semblance of ticked for the boys in Royal Blue. The rest of the games were a mix of downhill skiing against inferior opposition, getting blasted by Collingwood or Geelong or most frustratingly being in the game for 3 quarters or so before rolling over and giving the game away. This was particularly prevalent against West Coast (Rd1) by 4 points, Richmond (Rd 5) 9pts, Brisbane (Rd 9) 14pts, Sydney (Rd 10)1pt, St Kilda (Rd 15) 9pts, Carlton (Rd 19) 18pts, and on Sunday against Hawthorn (Rd 20)17 pts.

Yes that's correct we have been either even or ahead at some point in the last quarters and lost on 7 occasions. Just because I'm drinking scotch and researching doesn't make me wrong! If the Roos could have pulled 2 of those losses into victories they'd be playing finals this year and getting valuable experience into a core group of 30 - 100 gamers. Considering the Roos held considerable leads at some point in some of those games makes it even more disappointing. All the Kangaroos can do now is take the bye week off and regroup, hope for Essendon to lose to the Bulldogs and win their last 3 games. If results fall the way so that the Roos make it, great. If not, they probably didn't deserve it!

Round 20 @Aurora Stadium vs Hawthorn Hawks

Hawthorn Hawks 2.1 6.6 9.8 15.13 103



North Melbourne Kangaroos 3.7 5.7 9.7 13.8 86

Again North squandered early chances kicking 3 goals 7 behinds and failing to take ascendancy, with a strong breeze in their favour no less. Hawthorn kicked a little better in the second quarter taking a 5 point lead into the main break. Jack Ziebell was again strong in the engine room while Daniel Wells and Andrew Swallow seemed affected by the supposed flu they had. Todd Goldstein again held his own in the ruck. The Roos pulled the deficit back to 1 point at the 3 quarter break. Hawthorn were going to be kicking with the wind in the last so it was always going to be a tough ask. The most disappointing part of the loss was the fact that the Roos took ascendancy and kicked 4 quick goals, all to forward pocket speedster Matty 'Flash' Campbell, he finished with 5 goals for the match. His last goal giving the Roos a 4 point lead with 4 minutes to go. Things started to unravel from there, Lance Franklin finally decided to play and the Hawks kicked away with the last 3 goals of the game. Scott McMahon was great off half back with a team high 29 disposals, 8 marks and 6 tackles. Jack Ziebell was clearly Norths best with 27 disposals including 17 contested and 16 clearances and a goal. Todd Goldstein finished with 37 hit outs to go with his league leading tally. In the end the Hawks midfield stepped it up a gear when it was needed and proved they are about 5 ladder positions ahead of the Arden St boys. Rumour has it that several North player came down with flu like symptoms and diaargha and Lachlan Hansen actually had to pull out just before kick off.
 
Roo Rating: 7/10
 
Daniel Wells
 
Daniel apparently was suffering from mild flu symptoms and even though he finished with 19 touches and 5 tackles he only showed glimpses of brilliance including a much needed long range goal in atrocious Tasmanian conditions.
 
Wells Rating: 5/10
 
Until then hail to

Other teams results other than the Kangaroos

It's that time of year again in the AFL. After the 3 games today are over, there is only 4 rounds to go. The Kangaroos have their bye next week so will only have today (vs the Hawks in Tasmania, 4th on the ladder) and the final 3 rounds against Fremantle (9th), St Kilda (6th) and Richmond (13th). The Roos should account for the Dockers in Melbourne and Richmond in the last round. I've calculated that the Roos are a very good chance of making the finals if they win all 4 and a possible chance if they beat either the Hawks or Saints and other results go their way.

This is where the other team results come into it. Usually I wouldn't give a toss about an Essendon Vs Sydney game but at the business end of the season and both teams fighting for one of the last 2-3 finals places the game became an interesting one. I couldn't care who kicked the goals, picked up Brownlow votes or was subbed off. I was only interested in the final score. Unfortunately Essendon pulled off a 1 point win and could be the points to hold us out.

As it stands the top 5 team are going to play finals. Collingwood and Geelong will take the top 2 spots, probably in that order. Carlton, Hawthorn and West Coast will fill out spots 3 to 5, again not sure of the order yet. This leaves red hot St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Fremantle and the Kangaroos fighting for the last 3 spots to have the honour of playing finals. As it stands, not including the results today, Sunday the 7th of August the Ladder is:

6th - St Kilda 10 wins a draw - 42 points
7th - Sydney 9 wins a draw - 38 points
8th - Essendon 9 wins a draw - 38 points
-------------------------------------------
9th - Fremantle 9 wins - 36 points
10th - Nth Melbourne 8 wins - 32 points

An unlikely win for the Roos today against Hawthorn will see then move into 9th spot with superior percentage to the Dockers and sit a draw(half a game) out of the 8. This is where the Roos have their finals aspirations in their own hands but surely it's not bad sportsmanship to follow the games featuring the aforementioned teams and hope they lose.

St Kilda have hit a purple patch recently winning their last 6 games and 9 or their last 11. So they are probably out of reach for the Roos, so when they are playing one of the other 3 teams I hope they win. As seen this Friday when they beat Fremantle. The Kangaroos game today is the last game for the round that could have an affect on who will make the finals, so I'll be taping the game that is being broadcast at midnight tonight : (

Next week, Round 21 there are several games that I will keep a keen eye on. I'm bolding the ones I hope win for the hopes of the Roos making the finals for 2011.

St Kilda v Collingwood - Pies hot favourites ;)
Fremantle v Carlton - Carlton favourites ;)
Western Bulldogs v Essendon - Close game but going with Essendon. I'd love an upset though!
Richmond v Sydney - Sydney favs but who knows
North Melbourne have the bye. If all results go according to plan the ladder will look like this:

6th St Kilda 10 wins a draw - 42 points
7th Sydney 10 wins a draw - 42 points
8th Essendon 10 wins a draw - 42 points
-----------------------------------------
9th Fremantle 9 wins - 36 points
10th Nth Melbourne 8 wins - 32 points
I'm giving the Roos a loss to the Hawks, St Kilda and Fremantle likely to lose and wins to Sydney and Essendon.

Round 22
West Coast v Essendon - Eagle at home to win
Nth Melb v Fremantle - Roos favs in Melb to win
Sydney v St Kilda - Saints favs due to better form to win
Ladder
6th St Kilda 11 wins a draw - 46 points
7th Sydney 10 wins a draw - 42 points
8th Essendon 10 wins a draw - 42 points
-------------------------------
9th North Melb 9 wins - 36 points
10th Fremantle  9 wins - 36 points

Round 23
Fremantle v Collingwood - Pies to win
Geelong v Sydney - Geelong to win
St Kilda v Nth Melb - Roos to learn from last loss that should have been a win.
Essendon v Port Adelaide - Essendon to win. YCW Stonecats U15s could beat Power!
Ladder
6th St Kilda 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
7th Essendon 11 wins a draw - 46pts
8th Sydney 10 wins a draw - 42pts
--------------------------------------
9th Nth Melb 10 wins - 40pts
10th Fremantle 9 wins - 36 pts

Round 24
I not going to look at Fremantle as they will be out of contention by now.
Sydney v Brisbane - Sydney to win
Carlton v St Kilda - Carlton likely playing for top 4 spot to win
Richmond v Nth Melb - Surely Nth to win
Essendon have te bye
Ladder
6th St Kilda 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
7th Sydney 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
8th Essendon 11 wins a draw - 46 pts
--------------------------------
9th Nth Melb 11 wins - 44 pts

So if the results go according to plan and the Roos are able to beat either the Hawks or the Saints they'd still miss out by 2 points (the draw). That is why I will be hoping for an upset and a team like the Bulldogs or Richmond to beat 1 of the 3 teams ahead of us on the ladder.

I guess I should focus on the game today but that's how I roll.

Until then hail to an upset! (or two!)